Section Three: Forecasting Forecasting the sociocultural environment and behaviors

Training for sociocultural forecasting | 339 12 Training for sociocultural forecasting: Current status and science and technology gaps1

Using Social and Economic Indicators for Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis and Forecasting the Gasoline Demand in the Transportation Sector: An ANN Approach in case study for Tehran metropolis

Compared to the conventional methods, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are considered to be one of the reliable tools for modeling of complex phenomena such as demand. Aim of this study is to provide a model for gasoline demand in transportation section of Tehran metropolis through multilayered perceptron neural network and using the presented model in analyzing the sensitivity of the model to ...

Tornado Forecasting: A Review

Present-day operational tornado forecasting can be thought of in two parts: anticipation of tornadic potential in the storm environment, and recognition of tornadic storms once they develop. The former is a forecasting issue, while the latter is associated with warnings (or so-called nowcasting). This paper focuses on the forecasting aspect of tornadoes1, by dealing primarily with the relations...

Three Approaches to Time Series Forecasting of Petroleum Demand in OECD Countries

Petroleum (crude oil) is one of the most important resources of energy and its demand and consumption is growing while it is a non-renewable energy resource. Hence forecasting of its demand is necessary to plan appropriate strategies for managing future requirements. In this paper, three types of time series methods including univariate Seasonal ARIMA, Winters forecasting and Transfer Function-...

Online Semantic Activity Forecasting with DARKO

We address the problem of continuously observing and forecasting long-term semantic activities of a first-person camera wearer: what the person will do, where they will go, and what goal they are seeking. In contrast to prior work in trajectory forecasting and short-term activity forecasting, our algorithm, DARKO, reasons about the future position, future semantic state, and future high-level g...